Simulated, Projected, Achieved
Kronos uses three distinct words for three distinct things: simulated (a model output), projected (a forward estimate), and achieved (a hardware result).
Three words, three evidence levels
Precision about evidence needs more than two categories. Kronos distinguishes simulated — a value a model produces under stated assumptions; projected — a forward estimate that may fold in scaling, engineering margins, or fleet assumptions; and achieved — a value a built machine has produced and that was measured. Each word signals a different distance from hardware.
How they apply to Kronos
- Simulated: Q_sci 3.424, the 5.44% neutron fraction, field and current design points
- Projected: fleet-level outputs, forward timelines, availability estimates
- Achieved: today, our reproducible published analyses — hardware results do not yet exist
- First achieved hardware value: measured tritium from FOAK, targeted ~2030
Why three, not two
Collapsing 'projected' into 'simulated' would hide the extra assumptions a forward estimate carries — scaling, repeated builds, duty cycle. Collapsing it into 'achieved' would be far worse, implying it happened. Keeping the three separate lets a reader see exactly how many layers of assumption sit between a number and a measurement.
When we quote a number, the word we choose is not decoration. It is the shortest honest statement of what kind of thing the number is.