Products and the Honest Gates
Every product figure Hyperion quotes is contingent on open questions: net TBR at the 1.8 target, tritium self-sufficiency, and center-post lifetime.
What has to be true for the figures to hold
Hyperion's product figures — the ~4 kg/yr tritium class, the ~1.97 kg/yr helium-3 coproduct, and the neutron-service capacity — are design-and-simulation targets, not demonstrated yields. Candor requires naming the gates each one depends on. These are physics-and-engineering findings, stated plainly to build trust, and none of them is an economic statement.
The open questions
- Local vs net TBR: a local breeding ratio of 1.8 is not the net as-built value once ports, gaps, structure, coolant, and holdup are included. The reconciliation at the 1.8 target is unresolved.
- Tritium self-sufficiency: whether the machine breeds enough to fuel itself with surplus is not yet proven, and gates on net TBR clearing 1.0 with margin.
- Center-post lifetime: the inboard center post has a limited life, noted near 0.01 fpy, which constrains availability and campaign planning.
- Losses and holdup: the gap between bred and recoverable tritium must be bounded to keep the surplus real.
How the gates resolve
Closure comes from full-geometry neutronics, blanket and extraction engineering, and ultimately from measured tritium and helium-3 production at first-of-a-kind first tritium near 2030, with NOAK and BOAK refining the record. No net-gain claim is made before FOAK.
Why we publish the gates
Overstated breeding claims are the most common failure point in fusion fuel-cycle proposals. By stating TBR as a lever, separating local from net, and naming self-sufficiency and center-post lifetime as open, Kronos keeps the product story defensible. The figures are honest targets; the gates are the conditions under which they become facts.
This page describes a design-and-simulation study, not a built machine. Construction begins Q2 2027; first-of-a-kind (FOAK) first tritium is targeted near 2030. No net-gain claim is made before FOAK.