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Surrogates & Uncertainty

Local versus Global Sensitivity

Local sensitivity measures the response to a small nudge at one point; global sensitivity averages influence over the whole uncertain input space.

Two scopes of the same question

Both approaches ask how inputs affect an output, but over different scopes. Local sensitivity examines the neighborhood of a single nominal point. Global sensitivity examines the entire range of plausible inputs. The right choice depends on whether the model is near-linear and whether inputs vary a little or a lot.

Local sensitivity

Kronos motion — operating point

Local sensitivity is the vector of partial derivatives of the output with respect to each input, evaluated at a reference point. It answers how a small change in each input moves the output there. It is cheap - one gradient, often available by finite differences or automatic differentiation - and it underlies gradient-based optimization and first-order error propagation.

Its blind spots

Global sensitivity

Global methods - Sobol indices, Morris effects, regression measures - explore the full input distribution. They capture nonlinear response, interactions, and the effect of large input variation. The price is many model evaluations, which is why they are typically run on surrogates. Their rankings are robust across the input space rather than tied to one location.

Which to use

Use local analysis when uncertainties are small, the model is smooth, and a reference operating point is well defined - for instance, propagating tight tolerances. Use global analysis when uncertainties are large, the model is nonlinear, or interactions are suspected - the usual situation in early design when the operating point itself is uncertain.

In fusion design

Early Kronos design studies favor global sensitivity because operating parameters span wide ranges and the physics is nonlinear. As a design point for the machines settles, local sensitivity becomes useful for propagating manufacturing and control tolerances around that fixed point.