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Surrogates & Uncertainty

Latin Hypercube Sampling

Latin hypercube sampling stratifies every input dimension so a modest sample covers the space evenly, improving on plain random sampling.

Stratified in every dimension

Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) divides each input's range into N equal-probability intervals and draws exactly one sample from each interval, then pairs the per-dimension draws at random. The result is that every input is evenly represented across its whole range - no interval is over- or under-sampled - which random sampling cannot guarantee for small N.

The Latin square analogy

The name comes from the Latin square: in a grid, exactly one point per row and per column. LHS generalizes this to many dimensions, so each one-dimensional projection of the sample is perfectly stratified. This gives excellent marginal coverage from few points, a major gain for expensive models.

How it is built

Improving the pairing

Random pairing can still leave spurious correlations between inputs or leave gaps in the joint space. Optimized LHS variants fix this: maximin LHS maximizes the minimum distance between points, and orthogonal-array-based LHS controls low-dimensional projections. These refinements matter most when fitting surrogates that depend on joint structure.

Strengths and limits

LHS reduces estimator variance for functions dominated by main effects and is a standard default for both UQ sampling and surrogate training designs. Its guarantee is per-dimension, not per joint region, so in high dimensions it does not ensure uniform coverage of the full space the way low-discrepancy sequences aim to. It is also naturally a one-shot design, though extensible variants exist.

In practice

LHS is the common starting design for Kronos surrogate builds and Monte Carlo studies: a Latin hypercube over the uncertain physics inputs seeds the training set for models of the machines, after which adaptive sampling adds points where the surrogate is weakest.