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Process & Methodology
Uncertainty Quantification
A number without an uncertainty is a guess in a lab coat. Kronos quantifies its own.
Kronos propagates input uncertainties through its models with Monte-Carlo sampling, producing distributions and feasibility fractions rather than single deterministic values. Sensitivity (Sobol) and tornado analyses rank which assumptions the result actually depends on.
Honest error barsReporting a feasibility fraction — the share of sampled cases that still close — is more honest than a single point, and it is deposited alongside the point estimate.